Interests and Instability: The Middle East Power Play

Global politics often hinge on a singular driving force: the pursuit of national interest. Across the world, regional geopolitics are constantly shaped by the priorities of powerful states, both global hegemons and other significant powers, as they blend complex alliances and strategies with developing nations to further their objectives. This reality is evident today in the Middle East, a region where multidimensional national interests have coalesced around the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict. The area has long drawn the attention of major global players due to its oil resources, but ongoing instability in the region has persisted, fueled by a mix of local rivalries and global interventions.

Understanding the politics of the Indian Ocean

Historically, the Middle East has remained volatile despite its vast oil wealth, a situation that has roots in the 1970s petro-dollar agreement, which cemented the U.S. dollar’s role as the standard for global oil transactions. This agreement further consolidated the United States’ influence, helping it attain global dominance. However, the region has seldom known peace, weathering upheavals such as the Iranian Revolution, the Gulf Wars, Saudi Arabia’s involvement in neighboring conflicts, the Arab Spring, and the longstanding rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia for regional leadership.

A critical question arises from these tensions: who benefits from the instability of the Middle East? The U.S., as the leading superpower and a long-time ally of Israel, has historically made limited diplomatic efforts to bring lasting stability to the region, a pattern that may relate to the financial benefits it reaps from arms sales. The U.S. economy is heavily based on defense, and arms transactions thrive in regions marked by conflict. Therefore, maintaining a volatile Middle East indirectly benefits the U.S. and its allies by generating sustained demand for weapons.

For decades, this “divide and rule” approach has benefitted the U.S. and Israel, often playing Saudi Arabia and Iran against each other. The rivalry, frequently cast in religious terms, also serves political purposes, keeping Iran in check and deflecting attention from Israel’s actions in Palestine. Recently, however, global power dynamics are shifting as China, a rising competitor to the U.S., pivots from its traditional policy of non-intervention to one of increased engagement. Through diplomatic outreach in the Middle East and other Southern regions, China seeks to advance sustainable development and establish its influence. This approach challenges the dependency theory, which suggests that the Global South is largely subject to exploitation by the more developed North. With its ambitious Belt and Road Initiative, including the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), China aims to foster regional stability that could support its growing global influence and reduce reliance on Western powers. The Middle East, which holds strategic importance for both oil supply and trade routes, is central to this vision.

BRICS: Purpose, Power, and the Threat to Dollar Dominance

China’s recent mediation efforts between Iran and Saudi Arabia underscore its evolving role. The diplomatic breakthrough, if it leads to greater regional stability, could create a stronger bargaining position for Middle Eastern states in their dealings with Western powers. This newfound unity might also allow oil-producing nations to leverage their resources to press for an end to the violence in Gaza. A more stable Middle East could, however, threaten the U.S. dollar-based petrodollar system, especially with growing calls from the BRICS bloc to reduce dependency on the dollar. Such a development would jeopardize the U.S.’s global economic standing as the U.S. dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency depends largely on its dominance in oil transactions.

Recognizing the potential for a changing power balance, the U.S. has anticipated the risks that increased stability in the Middle East could pose to its interests. In response to China’s mediation efforts, the intensifying Iran-Israel conflict seems to be fueling heightened tensions in the region. With both sides retaliating, recent escalations have further destabilized the Middle East. Following Iranian missile launches against Israel, Israel has indicated it might target Iran’s oil and nuclear infrastructure in response. This volatile environment serves both Iran and the U.S. in distinct ways: Iran gains symbolic status as a defender of the Islamic world against perceived Western aggression, while the U.S. benefits by keeping the region unstable, which indirectly slows China’s CPEC ambitions, giving the U.S. time to develop its initiatives, such as the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC). This initiative, involving U.S. ally Saudi Arabia, stands as a direct competitor to CPEC and further complicates the region’s politics.

The Rise of China and Changing Geopolitical Dynamics

In a worst-case scenario for Iran, a hypothetical annexation of Iran by Israel would strengthen U.S. influence, as Saudi Arabia, a key regional ally, would remain the sole Middle Eastern power, committed to IMEC and supporting U.S. initiatives. Such an outcome would not only challenge China’s economic ambitions in the region but also curb the resurgence of Russia, which has increasingly cooperated with China to counter U.S. influence. As international relations evolve, these changing dynamics reflect a complex multilateral approach by global powers striving to secure their interests.

Today, the Middle East is an arena of strategic competition between the U.S. and China, where the victor may shift the trajectory of global power. The U.S., with its traditional strategy of military engagement, contrasts with China’s diplomatic maneuvering, reflecting their distinct paths to influence. The ultimate outcome remains uncertain, but the reverberations of this rivalry are already being felt worldwide. The U.S. is committed to safeguarding its strategic interests in the region to contain China’s expansion, particularly limiting its outreach beyond South Asia. Every move in the global geopolitical landscape will further define the standing of these powers, revealing the intricacies and evolving strategies that shape the world order.